Pao Ramen
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Nuanced communication usually doesn't work at scale
Nov 09 · news.ycombinator.com ⎯ This is an observation that goes back to at least Cicero.[1]
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A Map of Sync
Nov 09 · stack.convex.dev ⎯ We can categorize sync platforms across nine dimensions: data size, data update rate, the structure of the data, input latency, offline support, numbe…
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GitHub - BemiHQ/BemiDB: Postgres read replica optimized for analytics
Nov 09 · github.com ⎯ Postgres read replica optimized for analytics. Contribute to BemiHQ/BemiDB development by creating an account on GitHub.
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On the Statistical Differences between Binary Forecasts and Real World Payoffs
Nov 07 · arxiv.org ⎯ What do binary (or probabilistic) forecasting abilities have to do with overall performance? We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and “beliefs” (expressed as a specific “event” will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits or harm from an event) and show the effect of their conflation and mischaracterization in the decision-science literature. We also examine the differences under thin and fat tails. The effects are: A- Spuriousness of many psychological results particularly those documenting that humans overestimate tail probabilities and rare events, or that they overreact to fears of market crashes, ecological calamities, etc. Many perceived “biases” are just mischaracterizations by psychologists. There is also a misuse of Hayekian arguments in promoting prediction markets. We quantify such conflations with a metric for “pseudo-overestimation”. B- Being a “good forecaster” in binary space doesn’t lead to having a good actual performance}, and vice versa, especially under nonlinearities. A binary forecasting record is likely to be a reverse indicator under some classes of distributions. Deeper uncertainty or more complicated and realistic probability distribution worsen the conflation . C- Machine Learning: Some nonlinear payoff functions, while not lending themselves to verbalistic expressions and “forecasts”, are well captured by ML or expressed in option contracts. D- Fattailedness: The difference is exacerbated in the power law classes of probability distributions.
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Thinking About Recipe Formats More Than Anyone Should
Nov 06 · rknight.me ⎯ I investigated the various standards available for storing and presenting recipes on the web
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We can have a different web
Nov 06 · www.citationneeded.news ⎯ Many yearn for the “good old days” of the web. We could have those good old days back — or something even better — and if anything, it would be easier now than it ever was.
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On being funny at work
Nov 06 · www.lennysnewsletter.com ⎯ Seven strategies (and some stories) to help you harness the power of humor
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smollm/smol_tools at main · huggingface/smollm
Nov 06 · github.com ⎯ Contribute to huggingface/smollm development by creating an account on GitHub.
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CSS sprite sheet animations · leanrada.com
Nov 05 · leanrada.com ⎯ Check out this demo first (Click it!):
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Ellipsus | Collaborative writing software
Nov 05 · ellipsus.com ⎯ Write, edit, and collaborate on any device. Ellipsus is a principled alternative to Google Docs—built for writers, by writers. Sign up for free.
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Blog Writing for Developers
Nov 05 · rmoff.net ⎯ Writing is one of the most powerful forms of communication, and it’s useful in a multitude of roles and contexts. As a blog-writing, documentation-authoring, twitter-shitposting DevEx engineer I spend a lot of my time writing. Recently, someone paid me a very nice compliment about a blog I’d written and asked how they could learn to write like me and what resources I’d recommend.
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Steve Ballmer was an underrated CEO
Nov 05 · danluu.com ⎯ There’s a common narrative that Microsoft was moribund under Steve Ballmer and then later saved by the miraculous leadership of Satya Nadella. This is the dominant narrative in every online discussion about the topic I’ve seen and it’s a commonly expressed belief “in real life” as well. While I don’t have anything negative to say about Nadella’s leadership in this post, this narrative underrates Ballmer’s role in Microsoft’s success. Not only did Microsoft’s financials, revenue and profit, look great under Ballmer, Microsoft under Ballmer made deep, long-term bets that set up Microsoft for success in the decades after his reign. At the time, the bets were widely panned, indicating that they weren’t necessarily obvious, but we can see in retrospect that the company made very strong bets despite the criticism at the time.
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Adventures in Probability
Nov 04 · buttondown.com ⎯ I hope everyone had a good weekend. I went on a hike. It was great. Statistics One of my great school regrets, next to “taking three years of business…
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Why Perfect Clustering Algorithms Don't Exist
Nov 04 · blog.codingconfessions.com ⎯ No clustering algorithm is perfect and you must make a trade-off.
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Recraft: Generative AI Design Tool
Nov 04 · www.recraft.ai ⎯ Create and edit digital illustrations, art, and 3D graphics in a uniform brand style. Use Recraft to quickly generate designs for your app, website, or brand online for free.
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The Dual Nature of Events in Event-Driven Architecture
Nov 02 · www.reactivesystems.eu ⎯ Given that events play such a central role in event-driven architecture, there’s an astonishing lack of agreement on what should be contained in an event. This may be rooted in the fact that, depending on your perspective, events fulfill different purposes.
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We are Good Enough.
Nov 01 · goodenough.us ⎯ Good Enough builds useful, well-made products. We hope you enjoy them.
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Pika - Start Your Happy Blog
Nov 01 · pika.page ⎯ Pika is a pretty good blogging platform built by the good people at Good Enough.
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Probability-Generating Functions
Nov 01 · entropicthoughts.com ⎯ I have long struggled with understanding what probability-generating functions are and how to intuit them. There were two pieces of the puzzle missing for me, and we’ll go through both in this article.
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Mike Bespalov, Thanos Effect? I think it’s perfect naming. All code finally available on CodePen. Snap responsibly https://t.co/76kOcrNHNV pic…
Nov 01 · x.com ⎯ Thanos Effect? I think it’s perfect naming. All code finally available on CodePen. Snap responsibly pic.twitter.com/tsalOLk59G